Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Die Summe von Talebs Denken – originelle Thesen, eleganter Lesegenuss und scharfe Pointen Wir leben in einer unsicheren Welt, und das System, das sie beherrscht, hat auf dramatische Weise vorgeführt, wie zerbrechlich es ist. Und doch haben wir nichts daraus gelernt und setzen dieser Fragilität keine »Antifragilität« entgegen. Der Bestsellerautor Nassim Nicholas Taleb zeigt uns indes, wie das gehen kann. Er überträgt seine Erkenntnisse aus der Zufallsforschung auf nahezu alle lebenspraktischen Bereiche von der Erziehung über Kultur bis zur Politik. So gelingt ihm eine große, praktisch-philosophische Antwort auf die Herausforderungen unsicherer Zeiten. Denn wir gewinnen nicht, indem wir Zufälle und Ungewissheit um jeden Preis abzuwehren versuchen, sondern indem wir sie zu Stärken ummünzen: Das Antifragile bleibt – alles andere wird verschwinden.

Anleitung für eine Welt, die wir nicht verstehen

Antifragilität

Sebastian Stockmarr

Daniela Velez

To summarize, the problem with artificially suppressed volatility is not just that the system tends to become extremely fragile; it is that, at the same time, it exhibits no visible risks. Also remember that volatility is information. In fact, these systems tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policy makers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite. These artificially constrained systems become prone to Black Swans. Such environments eventually experience massive blowups, of the type seen in Figure 3, catching everyone off guard and undoing years of stability or, in almost all cases, ending up far worse than they were in their initial volatile state. Indeed, the longer it takes for the blowup to occur, the worse the resulting harm to both economic and political systems.

When constrained systems, those hungry for natural disorder, collapse, as they are eventually bound to, since they are fragile, failure is never seen as the result of fragility. Rather, such failure is interpreted as the product of poor forecasting. As with a crumbling sand pile, it would be unintelligent to attribute the collapse of a fragile bridge to the last truck that crossed it, and even more foolish to try to predict in advance which truck might bring it down. Yet it is done all too often.

Antifragilität quotes

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