Playing against Nature Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes gameof chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should adeveloping nation allocate its budget between building schools fortowns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives besaved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the fundsfor patient care? What should scientists tell the public when– as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes,California – there is a real but small risk of an upcomingearthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles suchchoices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake,hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expectedfrom detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmartsus, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures orcausing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that areoverestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact thatformulating effective natural hazard policy involves combiningscience, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem andexplore the costs and benefits of different options, in situationswhere the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies aretypically chosen without such analysis, the results are oftendisappointing. This book uses general principles and case studiesto explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view ofnatural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevantgeoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulationseparately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapterinvite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, andstudents interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, orpolicy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-levelundergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: ahref="http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature"http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature/a