Stefan Szymanski

SIMON. SZYMANSKI KUPER (STEFAN.)

'Magnificent... Freakonomics for football' - Guardian

Why France and Germany Win, Why England is Starting to and Why the Rest of the World Loses

Soccernomics

I like the inclusion of the mixed strategy nuance here. The story is great from Mancini’s reluctance towards insight from data and to the ultimate success of the thankless job done by the analytics department at Manchester City. However, I think a lot of data driven decision makers get lost in the weeds and finality of their insights. I love data to help guide decision making, but the devil’s in the details and truly great sportsmen parlay their natural insight with data supported strategies to maximize their productivity and efficiency.

Kay so Queso

Sometimes the keeper or a defender stopped the inswinger on the line, whereupon someone bashed it in. And occasionally the ball just swung straight in from the corner. Of course, you wouldn't want to take every corner as an inswinger. It's smart to hit the odd outswinger, too, just to keep the opponents guessing. This is what's known as a mixed strategy. But all in all, the analysts found that inswingers produced more goals than outswingers.

Unfortunately though, I know what they mean though lol; for my Econ Honors paper, I read and cited a study about birth rates being correlated with big game match outcomes for local soccer teams. Sports Econ research gets funny sometimes, so I see what they mean when they say they’re looking for data both in and outside of soccer

…so we spent a year firing figures, arguments, and anecdotes back and forth across the English Channel. As we talked more and began to think harder about soccer and data, we buzzed around all sorts of questions. Why was soccer such a terrible business? Might the game somehow deter people from killing themselves? And are fans really monogamous?

This seems to presume that reflecting on binomial probability theory is a better way to deal with your emotional distress than throwing bottles at a TV? Which…why?

I’m kidding that you should prefer one to another, but why is intellectualizing your problems more preferable to expressing them physically (violent actions not included haha)

Anyway, I like this sentence because it shows the bias towards rationalization over romanticization of sports, and I’m definitely a romantic personally. Don’t get me wrong, I love knowing as much as possible and love learning as much rational insight as I can, but the game is meaningless without romanticism, so I’ll definitely prefer fans throwing beer at TVs rather than needlessly contemplating statistics and throwing around meaningless and self-indulgent clout attained through intellectual hedonism

On the other hand, the next time their team loses a penalty shoot-out at the World Cup, these same people will probably be throwing their beer bottles at the TV, when instead they could be tempering their disappointment with some reflections on the nature of binomial probability theory.

Cool quote, good way of using rationalization to deal w the chaos of the world

"Numbers are incredibly satisfying," Bellos tells us. "The world has no order, and math is a way of seeing it in an order.”

Given the global obsession with the game, there could come a time when some of the best and brightest young people are working in the front offices of soccer clubs. Already, the rising generation of chub executives understands that in soccer today, you need data to get ahead.

Okay, as a romantic, I love this. Yes. Our decision making is biased and misguided as it’s driven by emotional factors.

But that last line, “it’s based on the emotion of the moment” I know this book isn’t arguing that the game should be purely numbers based, but I think the ultimate goal of the game is to produce these emotional moments for fans. I love how they debunk and counter common tropes in the sport, but damn, I hope to see them address the importance of that last sentence in some way

…be the next Erling Haaland. Meersseman says that data-driven scientists seem to be better than experienced youth coaches at making those predictions: "In soccer, they say, You know about football or you don't' And when you go and test the ones who 'know,' it's surprising how little they know. It's based on the emotion of the moment.

He spent one unhappy year in Milan before the club sold him back to Watford for just over half the sum it had paid for him. At least that year gave soccer one ofits best quotes: "No matter how much money you have here," Blissett lamented, “you can't seem to get Rice Krispies."

This is such a great point. The time lag on wage evaluations is far less (and maybe more competetive?) than transfer values. Transfer values are so wonky w factors like age, nationality, position, contract length and others affecting the sale price, but wages have to consistently be updated with player and club demands to stay in check.

Too high a wage? Club will find a way for you to depart. Too low a wage? Player will find a pay raise somehow.

As it discusses, not perfect, but I’m so impressed with how much of a good predictor wages are and why.

… the club will preemptively increase his wages limit his incentive to seek a transfer. That helps explain why wages are such a reliable indicator of quality

I love this. To think of it as a skill is quite interesting and begs the importance of management to make the right decisions. I’m really interested to watch the impact of this skill play out in coming years (thinking of clubs like Brighton and even Milan that pride themselves on high value signings, interested to see how this model endures or adapta over time)

To quote Carragher, "As I know to my cost at Anfield, having money is no guarantee of success. The skill is spending it on the right players."

Love this. This is why I never get jealous when a team signs a 9-figure player, like do you know how much 100+ mil is?? Even someone like Pulisic, Chelsea signed him for like 65 mil and sold him for 20 mil. Forget his wage, that’s an additional 45 mil!!! To have him on the team for like 4 years. Wow!

I think free transfers will take on increasing importance in soccer, but it’ll be interesting to see. This just helps put into context how ridiculous some transfers are, but it’s cool to think that these clubs are being humbled, or at least economically punished, for their incompetent transfer decisions. Big market teams still win, but there’s definitely room for smaller clubs to make winning moves, although I’m concerned by how they would hold onto both quality players AND management over time. Good ownership must be quite important haha

Big clubs that repeatedly make bad transfers can undo the advantages of their high wage bills.

Soccernomics quotes

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