Stuart Sutherland

New, 21st anniversary edition, with a new foreword by Ben Goldacre, author of Bad Science and Bad Pharma, and an afterword by James Ball, covering developments in our understanding of irrationality over the last two decades. Why do doctors, army generals, high-ranking government officials and other people in positions of power make bad decisions that cause harm to others? Why do prizes serve no useful function? Why are punishments so ineffective? Why is interviewing such an unsatisfactory method of selection? Irrationality is a challenging and thought-provoking book that draws on statistica.

The Enemy Within

Irrationality

Fabian Beiner

Rational thinking leads to the conclusion that is most likely to be correct, given the knowledge one has. Rational decisions are more complicated since a decision can only be evaluated if we know its objective: a rational action is the one that, given the person's knowledge, is most likely to achieve his end.

Neither rational thinking nor rational decision-making necessarily leads to the best outcome.

Judging by the first thing that comes to mind is called the ‘availability error.’

There is, however, no conflict between the primacy error and the effect of recency on availability. The primacy error occurs because when connected material (such as a newspaper article or lecture) is presented, the interpretation of the later material is colored by the earlier. The recency effect, on the other hand, occurs when material is not connected; under these circumstances, we tend to be influenced by what we have seen or heard most recently.

The primacy error can be regarded as one form of the availability error: the early items are immediately available in our minds when we encounter the rest.

1. Never base a judgment or decision on a single case, no matter how striking.

2. In forming an impression of a person (or object) try to break your judgment down into his (or its) separate qualities without letting any strikingly good or bad qualities influence your opinion about the remainder. This may seem cold, but it is important in situations, such as interviews or medical diagnoses based on a range of symptoms, where the judgment may seriously affect the person being judged.

3. When exposed to connected material, suspend judgment until the end: try to give as much weight to the last item as the first. 

4. Try to avoid obtaining information that would bias you: for example, in judging whether an article or a book should be published, remain ignorant of the author's name until you have formed your own opinion of the work.

1. Think carefully before announcing a decision publicly: you will find it harder to change. 

2. When you embark on a course of action from which you do not want to relapse, announce it to as many people as you can.

3. Ask yourself whether you are doing something merely because bothers do and if so, ask whether it really furthers your own ends. 

4. Don't be impressed by advice from someone you admire unless he is an expert on the topic in question - and even if he is, remember that experts are often wrong.

5. Don't be stampeded by the behavior of a crowd into acts you would not commit in calmer moments.

First, when a leader picks an advisory committee, he is unlikely to select either people who have very different views from himself or people who are more intelligent or more powerful in discussion than himself. 

Second, when a committee has a leader, the members will want to please him, particularly if he can influence their careers.

1. Whether you are a member of a committee or a golf club, be careful not to be carried away by the prevailing views. Consider and express counterarguments.

2.  If you are forming a committee, ensure that different viewpoints are represented.

3. If you are the head of an organization, try not to be affected by sycophancy.

4. Be wary of forming stereotypes, but if you do, remember that not everyone will neatly conform to them.

1. Beware of overrating the results of a choice you have made, particularly if it has cost you a great deal of time, effort, or money.

2. Try not to move by small steps to an attitude or action of which you would initially have disapproved. 

3. No matter how much time, effort or money you have invested in a project, cut your losses if investing more will not be beneficial.

4. Value any activity or possession at the price it is worth to you now, regardless of the past.

5. If you are persuaded to do something distasteful, try not to minimize its unpleasantness in order to justify yourself.

1. Don't take important decisions when under stress or strong emotion.

Irrationality quotes

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