Rolf Dobelli

Have you ever . . . Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Paid too much in an eBay auction? Continued to do something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

The Art of Thinking Clearly

Asmae

Doctors often fall victim to the availability bias. They have their favorite treatments, which they use for all possible cases More appropriate treatments may exist, but these are in the recesses of the doctors' minds. Consequently, they practice what they know. Consultants are no better. If they come across an entirely new case, they do not throw up their hands and sigh:"I really don't know what to tell you." Instead, they turn to one of their more familiar methods, whether or not it is ideal.

 We have problems perceiving nonevents. We are blind to what does not exist. We realize if there is a war, but we do not appreciate the absence of war during peacetime. If we are healthy, we rarely think about being sick. Or, if we get off the plane in Cancún, we do not stop to notice that we did not crash. If we thought more frequently about absence, might well be happier. But it is tough mental work. 

I would predict that turning your back on news will beneft you as much as purging any of the other ninety-eight laws we have covered in the pages of this book. Kick the habit completely. Instead, read long background articles and books. Yes, nothing beats books for understanding the world.

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