Jonathan V. Last

Challenges mainstream beliefs about overpopulation and cites the consequences of a rapidly depopulating world.

America's Coming Demographic Disaster

What to Expect when No One's Expecting

Bryan Alexander

At its best What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster does two things. It gives a light introduction to the unfolding demographic transition experienced by developed nations, and it offers a conservative assessment. Unfortunately neither is very deep, nor worth an entire book.

The conservative bona fides are clear. Last only mentions climate change once, in a footnote (31), and to dismiss it outright. He's straight-up anti-abortion (59). Last blames Social Security and Medicare taxes for depressing childbirth rates (45), which is odd, but neatly fits into the anti-social services ideology. He's very pro-marriage and anti people living together (65). He mentions Hungary's government in a sympathetic way, without noting that it's possibly the most right wing in Europe.

There are some interesting insights, like the observation that for some, rearing children is "an indicator of failure" (72). The author recommends Walter Russell Mead's idea of having the federal government offer a kind of GED/GRE exam, letting test takers test out of various undergrad degrees (165). Last is right to pick on the easy target of Paul Erlich's population models.

The style is very breezy and accessible.

At various points What to Expect is just off. Its discussion of higher education is narrow (only covering elite institutions) and very shallow (mentions sticker price only, not covering the reality of discount rates - i.e., what people actually pay). The book makes the strange case that allowing employers to test applicants for IQ would drive down college prices (164).

You can see the results of these problems in the book's conclusion, with recommendations on how to boost childbirth rates. One is to praise religious authority for encouraging marriage and procreation (157-9). Another is to cut Social Security, so as to cut SS taxes, which will somehow egg women on to having more kids (162-3). There's the claim that colleges should become more child-friendly (166), which ignores the huge numbers of parents taking classes. There's a call for more telecommuting, which would increase childbirth (168) - I'm still not seeing this. There's a fuddled call that thee US welcome more immigrants while... not welcoming a lot of immigrants (169). And a stuttering recommendation for more professions of faith without government policy (thanks for that) or... anything else, kind of (170).

So if you're looking for a conservative take on the huge demographic transition we're experiencing, What to Expect When No One's Expecting is a light intro and summary, akin to reading some blog posts. 

If you're interested in contemporary demographics, I recommend this book and that one instead. And I blog about the topic, too.

What to Expect when No One's Expecting America's Coming Demographic Disaster

Reviews