Tim Harford

Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the Poor Are Poor--and Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car!

The Undercover Economist

Messiness adds benefits to our lives, so why do we resist the concept so? Harford uses research from neuroscience, psychology and social science to explain why disorder, confusion, and disarray are actually lies at the core of how we innovate, how we achieve, how we reach each other. He shows that the human inclination for tidiness can mask a deep and debilitating fragility that keep us from innovation.

The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives

Messy

From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics. Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter. As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.

Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics

The Data Detective

'If you aren't in love with stats before reading this book, you will be by the time you're done. Powerful, persuasive, and in these truth-defying times, indispensable'Caroline Criado Perez, author of Invisible Women'Fabulously readable, lucid, witty and authoritative . . . Every politician and journalist should be made to read this book, but everyone else will get so much pleasure and draw so much strength from the joyful way it dispels the clouds of deceit and delusion' Stephen FryWhen was the last time you read a grand statement, accompanied by a large number, and wondered whether it could really be true? Statistics are vital in helping us tell stories - we see them in the papers, on social media, and we hear them used in everyday conversation - and yet we doubt them more than ever.But numbers - in the right hands - have the power to change the world for the better. Contrary to popular belief, good statistics are not a trick, although they are a kind of magic. Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact, they help us see more clearly. Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer, a microscope for a bacteriologist, or an X-ray for a radiologist. If we are willing to let them, good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves - both large and small - that we would not be able to see in any other way.In How to Make the World Add Up, Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less'. He takes us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation, bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers worthwhile. Harford's characters range from the art forger who conned the Nazis to the stripper who fell in love with the most powerful congressman in Washington, to famous data detectives such as John Maynard Keynes, Daniel Kahneman and Florence Nightingale. He reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence, curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism.Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers - plus one golden rule - this extraordinarily insightful book shows how if we keep our wits about us, thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented, we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up.

How to Make the World Add Up

This book is an economist's version of 'The Way Things Work'. It's part field guide to economics and part expose of the economic principles lurking behind daily events like traffic jams and high coffee prices.

Analyzes the underlying economic logic behind seemingly irrational behavior, explaining how people are responding to future costs and benefits and how socially tragic outcomes have their roots in individually rational decisions.

The Rational Economics of an Irrational World

The Logic of Life

Everything we know about solving the world's problems is wrong. Out: Plans, experts and above all, leaders. In: Adapting - improvise rather than plan; fail, learn, and try again In this groundbreaking new book, Tim Harford shows how the world's most complex and important problems - including terrorism, climate change, poverty, innovation, and the financial crisis - can only be solved from the bottom up by rapid experimenting and adapting. From a spaceport in the Mojave Desert to the street battles of Iraq, from a blazing offshore drilling rig to everyday decisions in our business and personal lives, this is a handbook for surviving - and prospering - in our complex and ever-shifting world.

Why Success Always Starts with Failure

Adapt

Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy paints an epic picture of change in an intimate way by telling the stories of the tools, people, and ideas that had far-reaching consequences for all of us. From the plough to artificial intelligence, from Gillette s disposable razor to IKEA s Billy bookcase, bestselling author and Financial Times columnist Tim Harford recounts each invention s own curious, surprising, and memorable story.

50 Inventions that Shaped the Modern Economy

The author of the best-selling The Undercover Economist moves beyond the spin and jargon of macroeconomic hype to explain how the world's economy actually works, revealing what is really happening behind today's headlines and what everyday people can do to understand it better.

How to Run-or Ruin-an Economy

The Undercover Economist Strikes Back

Based on the series produced for the BBC World Service Who thought up paper money? How did the contraceptive pill change the face of the legal profession? Why was the horse collar as important for human progress as the steam engine? How did the humble spreadsheet turn the world of finance upside-down? The world economy defies comprehension. A continuously-changing system of immense complexity, it offers over ten billion distinct products and services, doubles in size every fifteen years, and links almost every one of the planet's seven billion people. It delivers astonishing luxury to hundreds of millions. It also leaves hundreds of millions behind, puts tremendous strains on the ecosystem, and has an alarming habit of stalling. Nobody is in charge of it. Indeed, no individual understands more than a fraction of what's going on. How can we make sense of this bewildering system on which our lives depend? From the tally-stick to Bitcoin, the canal lock to the jumbo jet, each invention in Tim Harford's fascinating new book has its own curious, surprising and memorable story, a vignette against a grand backdrop. Step by step, readers will start to understand where we are, how we got here, and where we might be going next. Hidden connections will be laid bare: how the barcode undermined family corner shops; why the gramophone widened inequality; how barbed wire shaped America. We'll meet the characters who developed some of these inventions, profited from them, or were ruined by them. We'll trace the economic principles that help to explain their transformative effects. And we'll ask what lessons we can learn to make wise use of future inventions, in a world where the pace of innovation will only accelerate.

Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy

'Endlessly insightful and full of surprises - exactly what you would expect from Tim Harford' BILL BRYSON 'Entertaining . . . A lively introduction to some of the most ingenious, yet often overlooked inventions that have changed the way we live' The Times 'Every Tim Harford book is cause for celebration' MALCOLM GLADWELL 'Harford is a fine, perceptive writer, and an effortless explainer of tricky concepts. His book teems with good things, and will expand the mind of anyone lucky enough to read it' Daily Mail In Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, the revolutionary, acclaimed book, radio series and podcast, bestselling economist Tim Harford introduced us to a selection of fifty radical inventions that changed the world. Now, in this new book, Harford once again brings us an array of remarkable, memorable, curious and often unexpected 'things' - inventions that teach us lessons by turns intimate and sweeping about the complex world economy we live in today. From the brick, blockchain and the bicycle to fire, the factory and fundraising, and from solar PV and the pencil to the postage stamp, this brilliant and enlightening collection resonates, fascinates and stimulates. It is a wonderful blend of insight and inspiration from one of Britain's finest non-fiction storytellers.

The Next Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy

Addresses write-in questions from an economic standpoint, in a volume culled from the author's popular Financial Times column that shares his perspectives on such topics as the cost-benefit analysis of smoking, how economies of scale can enable romantic relationships, and the positive and negative externalities of setting off fireworks. By the best-selling author of The Logic of Life. Original.

Priceless Advice on Money, Work, Sex, Kids, and Life's Other Challenges

Dear Undercover Economist

Outlines a counterintuitive approach to changing the world by assessing its failures, drawing on myriad disciplines to argue that complex challenges must be met through adaptive trial-and-error practices that do not depend on expert opinions or ready-made solutions.

why success always starts with failure

By Tim Harford How to Make the World Add UpTen Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers Hardcover 17 SeptEMBER 2020

Adapte-se e vença os obstáculos do imprevisível mundo de hoje. Entrelaçando habilidosamente psicologia, biologia evolucionária, antropologia, física e economia com histórias persuasivas de lições duramente aprendidas na prática, Harford mostra uma nova e inspiradora abordagem para resolver os mais urgentes problemas de nossas vidas e explica como transformar o fracasso em sucesso. Harford argumenta que os desafios de hoje não podem ser resolvidos com soluções prontas e opinião de especialistas; o mundo tornou-se imprevisível demais e profundamente complexo. Precisamos aprender a nos adaptar.

Tim Harford

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