Daniel Kahneman

A psychologist draws on years of research to introduce his "machinery of the mind" model on human decision making to reveal the faults and capabilities of intuitive versus logical thinking.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Olivier Sibony

Cass R Sunstein

From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the co-author of Nudge, a groundbreaking exploration of why most people make bad judgments, and how to control for that noise.​ Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients -- or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants -- or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony show how noise contributes significantly to errors in all fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behavior, food safety, bail, security checks at airports, strategy, and personnel selection. And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike are commonly oblivious to the role of chance in their judgments and in their actions. Drawing on the latest findings in psychology and behavioral economics, and the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment -- and what we can do about it.

A Flaw in Human Judgment

Noise

Cass R. Sunstein

From the multi-million copy bestselling author of Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, the co-author of the million-copy bestseller Nudge Cass Sunstein, and the eminent professor and writer on strategic thinking Olivier Sibony, a new book about how to make better decisions.

Hizli ve Yavas Düsünme

Amos Tversky

Paul Slovic

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

Heuristics and Biases

Judgment Under Uncertainty

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Choices, Values, and Frames

Un apasionante recorrido por el funcionamiento de la mente de la mano del padre de la psicología conductista y premio Nobel de Economía en 2002: Daniel Kahneman. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los pensadores más importantes del mundo, recibió el premio Nobel de Economía por su trabajo pionero en psicología sobre el modelo racional de la toma de decisiones. Sus ideas han tenido un profundo impacto en campos tan diversos como la economía, la medicina o la política, pero hasta ahora no había reunido la obra de su vida en un libro. En Pensar rápido, pensar despacio, un éxito internacional, Kahneman nos ofrece una revolucionaria perspectiva del cerebro y explica los dos sistemas que modelan cómo pensamos. El sistema 1 es rápido, intuitivo y emocional, mientras que el sistema 2 es más lento, deliberativo y lógico. Kahneman expone la extraordinaria capacidad (y también los errores y los sesgos) del pensamiento rápido, y revela la duradera influencia de las impresiones intuitivas sobre nuestro pensamiento y nuestra conducta. El impacto de la aversión a la pérdida y el exceso de confianza en las estrategias empresariales, la dificultad de predecir lo que nos hará felices en el futuro, el reto de enmarcar adecuadamente los riesgos en el trabajo y en el hogar, el profundo efecto de los sesgos cognitivos sobre todo lo que hacemos, desde jugar en la Bolsa hasta planificar las vacaciones; todo esto solo puede ser comprendido si entendemos el funcionamiento conjunto de los dos sistemas a la hora de formular nuestros juicios y decisiones. Al implicar al lector en una animada reflexión sobre cómo pensamos, Kahneman consigue revelar cuándo podemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones y cuándo no, y de qué modo podemos aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento. Además, ofrece enseñanzas prácticas e iluminadoras sobre cómo se adoptan decisiones en la vida profesional o personal, y sobre cómo podemos usardistintas técnicas para protegernos de los fallos mentales que nos crean problemas. Pensar rápido, pensar despacio cambiará para siempre nuestra manera de pensar sobre cómo pensamos. Reseñas: «Los más entusiastas lo comparan con Galileo y Darwin.» El Mundo «Considerado uno de los mejores libros de 2011 por The New York Times, The Economist o The Wall Street Journal, Kahneman revela cuándo debemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones para aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento.» El Economista

Pensar rápido, pensar despacio

Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken

Attention and Effort

In this work the author, a recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making, has brought together his many years of research and thinking in one book. He explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. He exposes the extraordinary capabilities, and also the faults and biases, of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. He reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives, and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. This author's work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this book, he takes us on a tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think and the way we make choices.

Pulapki myslenia

Edward Diener

The nature of well-being is one of the most enduring and elusive subjects of human inquiry. Well-Being draws upon the latest scientific research to transform our understanding of this ancient question. With contributions from leading authorities in psychology, social psychology, and neuroscience, this volume presents the definitive account of current scientific efforts to understand human pleasure and pain, contentment and despair. The distinguished contributors to this volume combine a rigorous analysis of human sensations, emotions, and moods with a broad assessment of the many factors, from heredity to nationality, that bear on our well-being. Using the tools of experimental science, the contributors confront the puzzles of human likes and dislikes. Why do we grow accustomed and desensitized to changes in our lives, both good and bad? Does our happiness reflect the circumstances of our lives or is it determined by our temperament and personality? Why do humans acquire tastes for sensations that are initially painful or unpleasant? By examining the roots of our everyday likes and dislikes, the book also sheds light on some of the more extreme examples of attraction and aversion, such as addiction and depression. Among its wide ranging inquiries, Well-Being examines systematic differences in moods and behaviors between genders, explaining why women suffer higher rates of depression and anxiety than men, but are also more inclined to express positive emotions. The book also makes international comparisons, finding that some countries' populations report higher levels of happiness than others. The contributors deploy an array of methods, from the surveys and questionnaires of social science to psychological and physiological experiments, to develop a comprehensive new approach to the study of well-being. They show how the sensory pleasures of the body can tells us something about the higher pleasures of the mind and even how the effectiveness of our immune system can depend upon the health of our social relationships.

Foundations of Hedonic Psychology

Well-Being

Cambridge University Press

Thomas Gilovich

Dale Griffin

This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.

The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Pensieri lenti e veloci

rychlé a pomalé

Myšlení

Думай медленно... решай быстро

PARA ENTENDER CÓMO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. --Premio Nobel de Economía Dos médicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagnósticos diferentes a pacientes idénticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra según sea por la mañana o por la tarde, o según se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deberían ser iguales. El ruido está presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la economía, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protección infantil y la contratación. Además, también nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psicólogos más importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estratégico, nos enseñan a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de análisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirtió Pensar rápido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, prácticos y sencillos para pensar mejor. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--a tour de force" (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.

Ruido: Un Fallo En El Juicio Humano / Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Uma visão inovadora sobre como nossa mente funciona e como tomamos decisões. Daniel Kahneman, ganhador do Prêmio Nobel de Economia por pesquisas que colocam em xeque a ideia de que a nossa tomada de decisões é essencialmente racional, é um dos mais importantes pensadores do século XXI. Suas ideias tiveram um impacto profundo em muitas áreas, incluindo economia, psicologia, medicina e política, mas é a primeira vez que o autor reúne seus muitos anos de pesquisa e pensamento em um único livro. Rápido e devagar: duas formas de pensar apresenta uma visão tão inovadora quanto inquietante sobre como a mente funciona e como as decisões são tomadas. No livro, o autor explica as duas formas como se desenvolvem o pensamento humano: uma é rápida, intuitiva e emocional; a outra, mais lenta, deliberativa e lógica. Kahneman expõe as capacidades extraordinárias — e também os defeitos e vícios — do pensamento rápido e revela o peso das impressões intuitivas no processo de tomada de decisões. O autor revela quando é possível ou não confiar na intuição. Oferece insights práticos e esclarecedores sobre como são tomadas as decisões nos negócios e na vida pessoal, e como se pode usar diferentes técnicas para proteger contra falhas mentais que, muitas vezes, colocam o indivíduo em situações de apuro. Eleito um dos melhores livros de 2011 pelo New York Times Book Review

Duas formas de pensar

Rápido e devagar

Daniel Kahneman, uno de los pensadores más importantes del mundo, recibió el premio Nobel de Economía por su trabajo pionero en psicología sobre el modelo racional de la toma de decisiones. Sus ideas han tenido una profunda influencia en campos tan diversos como la economía, la medicina o la política. En Pensar rápido, pensar despacio, un éxito internacional, Kahneman presenta por primera vez su revolucionaria perspectiva del cerebro y explica los dos sistemas que modelan cómo pensamos. El sistema 1 es rápido, intuitivo y emocional, mientras que el sistema 2 es más lento, deliberativo y lógico. El impacto de la aversión a la pérdida y el exceso de confianza en las estrategias empresariales, la dificultad de predecir lo que nos hará felices en el futuro o el profundo efecto de los sesgos cognitivos sobre todo lo que hacemos solo pueden comprenderse si entendemos el funcionamiento conjunto de los dos sistemas a la hora de formular nuestros juicios y decisiones. Al implicar al lector en una animada reflexión sobre cómo pensamos, Kahneman consigue revelar cuándo debemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones y cuándo no, y de qué modo podemos aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento. Además, ofrece enseñanzas prácticas e iluminadoras sobre cómo se adoptan decisiones en la vida profesional o personal, y sobre cómo podemos usar distintas técnicas para protegernos de los fallos mentales que nos crean problemas. Pensar rápido, pensar despacio cambiará para siempre nuestra manera de pensar sobre cómo pensamos -- Contracarátula.

Daniel Kahneman

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