Eduardo Levy Yeyati

Una oleada de despidos, una ciudad infectada de suicidios y de accidentes extraños, de escuchas y delaciones. Donde saber, o conocer a alguien que sabe, es excusa válida para aparecer en una lista. Como en el juego de la macha. Falsas denuncias, el accionar descontrolado de grupos de inteligencia, una sucesión de siniestros, un reguero de cadáveres y la sospecha de todos contra todos. Los medios de comunicación devuelven sórdidas imágenes de aquellos que se atreven a la sospecha. Las acusaciones neutralizan toda rebeldía y la resistencia es inútil: cualquier excusa es válida para acabar fichado en una lista. Nadie se salva de ser, a la vez, perseguido y perseguidor, como en el juego de la macha: "Si sabés algo, si conocés a alguien que sabe algo, sos boleta". Fantasía retrofuturista de ingeniería social, esta distopía melancólica nos sumerge en una historia sinuosa y poblada de implícitos, y a sus protagonistas, en una realidad oscura que los llena de preguntas.

El juego de la mancha

Sergio L. Schmukler

Maria Soledad Martinez Peria

"Levy-Yeyati, Martinez Peria, and Schmukler show that systemic risk exerts a significant impact on the behavior of depositors, sometimes overshadowing their responses to standard bank fundamentals. Systemic risk can affect market discipline both regardless of and through bank fundamentals. First, worsening systemic conditions can directly threaten the value of deposits by way of dual agency problems. Second, to the extent that banks are exposed to systemic risk, systemic shocks lead to a future deterioration of fundamentals not captured by their current values. Using data from the recent banking crises in Argentina and Uruguay, the authors show that market discipline is indeed quite robust once systemic risk is factored in. As systemic risk increases, the informational content of past fundamentals declines. These episodes also show how few systemic shocks can trigger a run irrespective of ex-ante fundamentals. Overall, the evidence suggests that in emerging economies, the notion of market discipline needs to account for systemic risk. This paper--a product of the Finance Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to study market discipline"--World Bank web site.

Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies

Market Discipline Under Systemic Risk

Augusto de la Torre

Samuel Pienknagura

This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region s recent performance recede. In particular, we address the role of the exchange rate as a counter-cyclical policy tool to buffer adverse external shocks.

Latin America s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer

LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013

Guillermo Beylis

Tatiana Didier

Carlos Rodriguez Castelan

Sergio Schmukler

As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. We document the significant slowdown in economic activity across the region, and explore the possibility of this being the ‘new normal’. In Chapter 2 we assess if the major social gains achieved during the ‘Golden Decade’, in particular the decline in inequality, will hold in this less supportive environment, and discuss alternative policy responses to preserve and further the equity gains in the region.

Inequality in a Lower Growth Latin America

LAC Semiannual Report October 2014

This semiannual report — a product of the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank — examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region’s recent performance recede. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the global economy and its implications for the short- and medium-term prospects of the LAC region. Chapter 2 provides a detailed analysis of the general patterns of domestic demand and supply observed in LAC over the last decade. In particular we document the steady increase in LAC’s domestic demand, especially its investment component, as a share of GDP over the 2000s. Moreover, we show that the rise of domestic demand has occurred in tandem with an expansion of the services sector. We assess what are the pitfalls and challenges for LAC’s growth pattern in a less benign global environment.

In Search of Higher Growth (LAC Semiannual Report, April 2013)

Latin America and the Caribbean as Tailwinds Recede

Este informe semestral, producido por la Oficina del Economista Jefe para América Latina y el Caribe del Banco Mundial, examina los retos a los que América Latina y el Caribe (LAC por sus siglas en inglés, Latin America and the Caribbean) se enfrentan en el corto y medio plazo conforme pierden fuerza los factores externos que resultaron decisivos para el desempeño reciente. En concreto, el informe analiza el papel del tipo de cambio como herramienta contra-cíclica para amortiguar los choques externos negativos. Como es costumbre en esta serie, el Capítulo 1 repasa el estado de la economía mundial y sus implicaciones para las perspectivas de corto y medio plazo de LAC. Además, examina las vulnerabilidades de la región en un periodo en que los vientos favorables están amainando. El Capítulo 2 describe el nuevo papel del tipo de cambio en LAC como amortiguador de choques en el marco de las transformaciones importantes que la región ha realizado en el frente macrofinanciero durante la última década. Finalmente, el Capítulo 3 analiza pormenorizadamente las políticas de intervención para suavizar el tipo de cambio.

Eduardo Levy Yeyati

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