Gregory F. Treverton

C. Bryan Gabbard

This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Wilhelm Agrell

Intelligence is currently facing increasingly challenging cross-pressures from both a need for accurate and timely assessments of potential or imminent security threats and the unpredictability of many of these emerging threats. The essence of intelligence is no longer the collection, analysis, and dissemination of secret information, but has become instead the management of uncertainty in areas critical for overriding security goals.

Beyond the Great Divide in Analysis and Policy

National Intelligence and Science

David C. Gompert

Brooke Stearns Lawson

Marla C. Haims

Insecurity in the 21st century appears to come less from the collisions of powerful states than from the debris of imploding ones. This paper aims to improve the understanding and treatment of failed states by focusing on critical challenges at the intersections between security, economics, and politics and on the guiding goal of lifting local populations from the status of victims of failure to agents of recovery.

Breaking the Failed-State Cycle

Martin C. Libicki

Stuart E. Johnson

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÃ‘and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ã‘transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÃ‘from modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

A study of the involvement of organized-crime and terrorist groups in product counterfeiting. Case studies of film piracy illustrate the problem of criminal and perhaps terrorist groups using this new high-payoff, low-risk way to fund their activities. Cooperation among law enforcement and governments worldwide is needed to combat intellectual-property theft, which threatens the global information economy, public safety, and national security.

Film Piracy, Organized Crime, and Terrorism

It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

John Van Oudenaren

Peter Polomka

Robert S. Jaster

Doctrine, the Alliance, and Arms Control

Power and Policy

Gregory Treverton reviews the significant episodes in Europe's history after World War II, emphasizing America's preoccupation with Europe and the decisive effect of U.S. foreign policy on European security and economic arrangements during the postwar years. Originally published in 1992. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Gregory F. Treverton

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