Michael D. Rich

Rand Corporation

I. K. Cohen

Raymond Pyles

This report is based on testimony given by Michael Rich to the House Armed Services Committee's Subcommittee on Readiness in February 1986. It traces the evolution of RAND research on an important defense management problem: How to increase the capability of combat forces by improving the ability of combat commanders, resource managers, and planners to assess readiness and sustainability and to take appropriate action to strengthen both. It describes the general challenge of assessing readiness and sustainability, discusses the present state of the art and its evolution, and finally, considers what the future holds. It reflects a view that readiness and sustainability assessment represents more than a means of looking at past decisions; it is now a required and increasingly important element of day-to-day combat force operations, support system management, and planning for future forces and operations.

Prepared for the United States Air Force

Recent Progress in Assessing the Readiness and Sustainability of Combat Forces

Assesses cost and schedule implications of acquiring weapon systems using multinational coproduction by examining experiences accumulated in a large and diverse set of aerospace development and production programs. Describes and, where possible, quantifies marked U.S. and European differences in such areas as production scale, workforce policies, schedule philosophy, and manufacturing methods that are a key to understanding the special consequences of international involvement in U.S. weapons production. Discusses implications of U.S. and European differences for collaborative production programs. Examines in detail the cost and schedule implications of coproduction in the F-16 fighter aircraft program, one of the most ambitious collaborative efforts ever attempted by the United States. Concludes with findings and policy-related observations, some of which are specific to the F-16 program, and others which address more general issues associated with multinational coproduction.

A Project Air Force Report

Multinational Coproduction of Military Aerospace Systems

Coproduction, or international collaboration during production of a major weapon system, is one of the more complex forms of multinational cooperation, and the Rand Corporation has completed a comprehensive investigation into some widely held beliefs about such arrangements. The purpose of the analysis was to assess the impact of coproduction on acquisition costs and schedules and to identify ways to maximize its advantages while sidestepping its pitfalls. (For details of this Air Force-sponsored study, see Michael Rich, William Stanley, John Birkler, and Michael Hesse, 'Multinational Coproduction of Military Aerospace Systems, ' Rand Corporation, R-2861-AF, October 1981). Researchers were particularly interested in determining whether European collaborative programs are credible guideposts for predicting the outcomes of U.S.-European programs, whether collaborative programs experience more schedule slippage than do uninational programs, and whether coproduction imposes a cost penalty on the United States. The Rand team examined a wide variety of uninational, U.S.-European, and European collaborative aerospace development and production programs, both completed and ongoing, including the largest and most complex U.S.-European collaborative effort to date, the F-16 fighter aircraft program.

Cost and Schedule Implications of Multinational Coproduction

Kavanagh

Political and civil discourse in the United States is characterized by “Truth Decay,” defined as increasing disagreement about facts, a blurring of the line between opinion and fact, an increase in the relative volume of opinion compared with fact, and lowered trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. This report explores the causes and wide-ranging consequences of Truth Decay and proposes strategies for further action.

Michael D. Rich

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