Nick Bostrom

The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence.

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Superintelligence

The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant

Napoleon Ryan

Director of the Future of Humanity Institute Nick Bostrom

Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.

Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy

Anthropic Bias

Milan M. Cirkovic

A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again.In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.

Global Catastrophic Risks

A greyhound catching the mechanical lure--what would he actually do with it? Has he given this any thought? Bostrom's previous book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies changed the global conversation on AI and became a New York Times bestseller. It focused on what might happen if AI development goes wrong. But what if things go right? Suppose that we develop superintelligence safely, govern it well, and make good use of the cornucopian wealth and near magical technological powers that this technology can unlock. If this transition to the machine intelligence era goes well, human labor becomes obsolete. We would thus enter a condition of "post-instrumentality", in which our efforts are not needed for any practical purpose. Furthermore, at technological maturity, human nature becomes entirely malleable. Here we confront a challenge that is not technological but philosophical and spiritual. In such a solved world, what is the point of human existence? What gives meaning to life? What do we do all day? Deep Utopia shines new light on these old questions, and gives us glimpses of a different kind of existence, which might be ours in the future.

Life and Meaning in a Solved World

Deep Utopia

Are You Living In a Computer Simulation?

Süper Zekâ

Julian Savulescu

Human enhancement has risen into prominence as a topic in practical ethics and in public debates about the appropriate focus of biomedical research.This book features original contributions from many of the world's leading ethicists and moral thinkers working on these questions, representing a wide range of perspectives---from both the East and the West, from both booster and knockers and sceptics and moderates, with an emphasis on carefulanalytic work. Julian Savulescu and Nick Bostrom thus present a unique snapshot of the state of the debate. This is a must-read for anybody who wishes to have an informed opinion on these matters.

Human Enhancement

Where Are They? Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing

The Vulnerable World Hypothesis

A History of Transhumanist Thought

To what extent should we use technology to try to make better human beings? Because of the remarkable advances in biomedical science, we must now find an answer to this question. Human enhancement aims to increase human capacities above normal levels. Many forms of human enhancement are already in use. Many students and academics take cognition enhancing drugs to get a competitive edge. Some top athletes boost their performance with legal and illegal substances. Many an office worker begins each day with a dose of caffeine. This is only the beginning. As science and technology advance further, it will become increasingly possible to enhance basic human capacities to increase or modulate cognition, mood, personality, and physical performance, and to control the biological processes underlying normal aging. Some have suggested that such advances would take us beyond the bounds of human nature. These trends, and these dramatic prospects, raise profound ethical questions. They have generated intense public debate and have become a central topic of discussion within practical ethics. Should we side with bioconservatives, and forgo the use of any biomedical interventions aimed at enhancing human capacities? Should we side with transhumanists and embrace the new opportunities? Or should we perhaps plot some middle course? Human Enhancement presents the latest moves in this crucial debate: original contributions from many of the world's leading ethicists and moral thinkers, representing a wide range of perspectives, advocates and sceptics, enthusiasts and moderates. These are the arguments that will determine how humanity develops in the near future.

O cérebro humano possui algumas aptidões ausentes nos cérebros dos demais seres vivos. Nossa posição dominante no planeta se deve a estas particulares habilidades. Outros animais possuem músculos mais robustos ou mandíbulas mais afiadas, mas nós temos cérebros mais sofisticados. Se algum dia os cérebros artificiais superarem a inteligência dos cérebros humanos, então esta nova superinteligência pode se tornar muito poderosa. Assim com o destino dos gorilas hoje depende mais dos humanos do que dos próprios símios, o destino da nossa espécie também se tornaria dependente das ações destas máquinas superinteligentes. Mas nós temos uma vantagem: começamos a dar o primeiro passo. Será possível construir uma inteligência artificial ou projetar condições iniciais para que possamos gerar uma explosão de inteligência sustentável, que não implique no fim da nossa espécie? Como poderíamos alcançar uma expansão controlada desta inteligência? Profundamente ambicioso e original, Superinteligência: Caminhos, Perigos, Estratégias avança cuidadosamente por um amplo e árduo terreno intelectual, porém, com uma escrita tão perspicaz e clara que faz com que tudo pareça simples. Através de uma jornada completamente envolvente que nos conduz às fronteiras do pensamento sobre a condição humana e o futuro da vida inteligente, a obra do filósofo Nick Bostrom redefine o desafio essencial de nosso tempo. Superinteligência, de Nick Bostrom - professor na faculdade de Filosofia na Universidade de Oxford -, tem sido aclamado e recomendado por nomes como Bill Gates e Elon Musk. Traduzido em mais de uma dezena de países, o livro alcançou a lista de mais vendidos do New York Times e o autor foi incluído pela revista Foreign Policy entre os "Top 100 Global Thinkers" de 2015. A obra integra a linha editorial Crânio, da DarkSide Books, que tem o compromisso de publicar material minuciosamente selecionado. Obras assinadas por especialistas, acadêmicos e pensadores em diversas áreas, dispostos a dividir experiências e pontos de vista transformadores que nos ajudem a entender melhor esse estranho e admirável mundo novo.

Superinteligência: Caminhos, perigos, estratégias

Es stehen dramatische Zeiten bevor: In den nächsten Jahrzehnten könnten Technologien wie die Künstliche Intelligenz und die Gentechnik das Ende der Menschheit herbeiführen oder aber ein goldenes Zeitalter einläuten, das wir uns noch kaum ausmalen können. Oder leben wir etwa heute schon in der Matrix, wie der schwedische Philosoph und Bestsellerautor (Superintelligenz) Nick Bostrom in seinem berühmten Simulationsargument behauptet? In den sechs hier versammelten Aufsätzen, von denen einige bereits Klassikerstatus besitzen, wagt Bostrom einen ebenso nüchternen wie detaillierten Blick in unsere Zukunft. Manches liest sich (noch) wie Science-Fiction, könnte aber aktueller und ernster kaum sein.

Aufsätze

Die Zukunft der Menschheit

Was geschieht, wenn es Wissenschaftlern eines Tages gelingt, eine Maschine zu entwickeln, die die menschliche Intelligenz auf so gut wie allen wichtigen Gebieten übertrifft? Klar ist: Eine solche Superintelligenz wäre enorm mächtig und würde uns vor Kontroll- und Steuerungsprobleme stellen, verglichen mit denen die Bewältigung des Klimawandels ein Klacks ist. Mehr noch: Vermutlich würde die Zukunft der menschlichen Spezies in den Händen dieser Superintelligenz liegen, so wie heute die Zukunft der Gorillas von uns abhängt. Zukunftsmusik? Oder doch Science-Fiction? Eindeutig Zukunftsmusik, sagt Nick Bostrom, und zwar eine, die vielleicht schon binnen eines Menschenalters erklingen wird. Damit wir verstehen, was auf uns zukommt, nimmt er uns mit auf eine faszinierende Reise in die Welt der Orakel und Genies, der Superrechner und Gehirnsimulationen, aber vor allem in die Labore dieser Welt, in denen fieberhaft an der Entwicklung einer künstlichen Intelligenz gearbeitet wird. Bostrom skizziert mögliche Szenarien, wie die Geburt der Superintelligenz vonstattengehen könnte, und widmet sich ausführlich den Folgen dieser Revolution. Sie werden global sein und unser wirtschaftliches, soziales und politisches Leben tiefgreifend verändern. Wir müssen handeln, und zwar kollektiv, bevor der Geist aus der Flasche gelassen ist – also jetzt! Das ist die eminent politische Botschaft dieses so spannenden wie wichtigen Buches.

Nick Bostrom

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