Ray Dalio

Jeremy Bobb

Life and Work

Principles

From the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles and legendary investor Ray Dalio, who has spent half a century studying global markets, The Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes. A few years ago, renowned investor Ray Dalio began noticing a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before in his fifty-year career. They included large debts and zero or near-zero interest rates in the world’s three major reserve currencies; significant wealth, political, and values divisions within countries; and emerging conflict between a rising world power (China) and the existing one (US). Seeking to explain the cause-effect relationships behind these conditions, he began a study of analogous historical times and discovered that such combinations of conditions were characteristic of periods of transition, such as the years between 1930 and 1945, in which wealth and power shifted in ways that reshaped the world order. Looking back across five hundred years of history and nine major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—The Changing World Order puts into perspective the cycles and forces that have driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. Dalio reveals the timeless and universal dynamics that were behind these shifts, while also offering practical principles for policymakers, business leaders, investors, and others operating in this environment.

Why Nations Succeed and Fail

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke ​"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers "A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson "An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner "Dalio's approach, as in his investment management, is to synthesize information, and to convert a sprawling and multi-faceted issue into a clear-cut process of cause and effect. Critically, he simplifies without over-simplifying." - Financial Times For the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly. As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future. The template comes in three parts:: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

Big Debt Crises

An entertaining, illustrated adaptation of Ray Dalio’s Principles, the #1 New York Times bestseller that has sold more than two million copies worldwide. Principles for Success distills Ray Dalio’s 600-page bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, down to an easy-to-read and entertaining format that’s acces­sible to readers of all ages. It contains the key elements of the unconven­tional principles that helped Dalio become one of the world’s most suc­cessful people—and that have now been read and shared by millions worldwide—including how to set goals, learn from mistakes, and collaborate with others to produce exceptional results. Whether you’re already a fan of the ideas in Princi­ples or are discovering them for the first time, this illustrated guide will help you achieve success in having the life that you want to have.

Principles for Success

The Changing World Order

How the Economic Machine Works

Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises

En 1975, Ray Dalio fundó Bridgewater Associates desde su pequeño apartamento de Nueva York. Cuarenta años después, Bridgewater es la quinta compañía privada más importante de Estados Unidos (Fortune) y ha conseguido ganar más dinero para sus inversores que cualquier otro hedge fund en la historia (Bloomberg). A lo largo de su trayectoria, Dalio ha descubierto un conjunto de principios únicos que considera la base de su éxito y que ahora comparte con todos nosotros. En este libro repasa su trayectoria, haciendo mayor hincapié en sus errores que en sus aciertos, pues destaca que estos errores han sido su principal fuente de aprendizaje. Un conocimiento que surge de la experiencia y que le permitió, tras acabar arruinado en 1982, ser uno de los únicos gestores capaces de capear con éxito la crisis financiera de 2008. Ray Dalio, que ha sido apodado "el Steve Jobs de la inversión", te invita a descubrir estos principios y a ponerlos en práctica para conseguir todo lo que te propongas.

Principios

Zasady

Populism

Ray Dalio, the legendary investor and #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles—whose books have sold more than five million copies worldwide—shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to antic­ipate 2008’s events and navigate them well while others struggled badly. As he explained in his #1 New York Times best­seller Principles, Ray Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind events and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this three-part research series, he does just that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes of reducing the chances of big debt crises hap­pening and helping them be better managed in the future. The template comes in three parts: 1. The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template) 2. Three Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930s Great Depression, and the 1920s infla­tionary depression of Germany’s Weimar Republic) 3. Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years) Whether you’re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested in debt, this unconventional perspective from one of the few people who navigated the crisis successfully, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

In dieser bemerkenswerten und zeitgemäßen Ergänzung zu seiner Principles-Reihe nimmt Dalio die Leser mit auf seine Studie über die großen Imperien – einschließlich des holländischen, britischen und amerikanischen – und rückt den »großen Zyklus«, der die Erfolge und Misserfolge aller großen Länder der Welt im Laufe der Geschichte bestimmt hat, ins rechte Licht. Vor einigen Jahren begann Ray Dalio beunruhigende politische und wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen zu bemerken, denen er in seiner 50-jährigen Karriere noch nie zuvor begegnet war. Auf der Suche nach einer Erklärung entdeckte er, dass solche Kombinationen von Bedingungen charakteristisch für Perioden des Übergangs sind, in denen sich Reichtum und Macht in einer Weise verschoben, die die Weltordnung neu gestaltete. Dieses Buch analysiert die turbulentesten wirtschaftlichen und politischen Phasen der Geschichte, um zu zeigen, warum die vor uns liegenden Zeiten sich radikal von denen unterscheiden werden, die wir bisher erlebt haben.

Vom Aufstieg und Fall von Nationen

Weltordnung im Wandel

"With this new journal, Dalio takes his goal one step further to help readers reflect on and record their own principles. He does that by providing a series of guided exercises and questions for reflecting on what you’re like, what you value, and what principles will best help you achieve your goals. These exercises draw from key concepts in the original Principles book, including: 1. How to identify your strengths, weaknesses, motivations, and preferences 2. How to use the “five-step process” to achieve your goals 3. How to become both “assertive and open-minded at the same time” 4. How to maximize your learning from your mistakes (which are inevitable)."--from amazon.com.

Your Guided Journal (Create Your Own Principles to Get the Work and Life You Want)

☆全世界企業界、管理者、金融業者、渴望進化的人都在看☆ ☆淬煉40年、價值1,500億美元的成功法，不藏私公開☆ ☆年度最強商管書，無人能及☆ 美國亞馬遜書店商管榜首、《紐約時報》暢銷榜首、中國亞馬遜書店商管榜首 ☆企業和個人進化必備經典☆ 比爾•蓋茲盛讚： 「瑞．達利歐曾給我非常寶貴的指導和忠告，你在《原則》一書中都能找到。」 瑞．達利歐出身美國普通中產家庭，26歲時被投資公司炒魷魚，在自己的兩房公寓室白手起家創辦了橋水，並在接下來超過42年裡，把橋水打造成了獲《財星》（Fortune）雜誌評選為美國第五重要的私人公司。現在橋水管理資金超過1,500億美元，截至2015年年底，盈利超過450億美元。達利歐曾成功預測2008年金融危機，成為華爾街教父級大神。 一路以來，達利歐曾入選世界百大最具影響力人物［《時代》（Time）］與百大富豪［《富比世》（Forbes）］，而且由於他獨特的投資原則改變了業界，《CIO》更稱他是「投資界的史蒂夫．賈伯斯」。 他是怎麼辦到的？靠的是「原則」！他從1982年看錯墨西哥債務危機、狠狠跌交的經驗中吸取教訓，提煉決策標準，日積月累，總結成一組「原則」，包含21條高層原則、139條中原則和365條分原則，涵蓋為人處事、公司管理兩大方面，是橋水的員工手冊，橋水依循進行日常管理，也是橋水成為全球最強避險基金的祕密。 瑞．達利歐認為，是原則造就他的事業的成功，對工作與人際關係的價值更是彌足珍貴，他決定不藏私，在2010年直接在橋水網站上公布簡略版原則，深受矚目，下載高達300多萬次，達利歐收到來自世界各地的感謝信，也決定付諸出版，分享更多讀者。 《原則》一書公開橋水屹立40多年的答案。一部分是達利歐的自傳，在他鮮活的個人故事中，回顧了他如何在1975年開創橋水，橋水內部的衝突，以及他職業生涯早年的失敗與奮戰；一部分是行動指南。內容從為人處世、理解現實到日常工作、企業管理，無論各行各業管理高層、中階主管、基層員工、一般大眾，只要想精進自我，它都能是一套帶你通往成功的秘笈。在達利歐指點下，你可以認識自己、了解現實：當現實考驗越大，你更能挺過，獲致非凡成功。舉凡著名的「極度真實、極度透明」、「可信度加權」的決策、「創意擇優」……所有成功的關鍵面向，處處都是洞見與啟發。這本匯集40多年智慧精華的書，就是華爾街大神達利歐最慷慨的禮物。 【允許失敗】 1982年達利歐錯判墨西哥債務違約會使美國經濟走向蕭條，因為結果大錯特錯，橋水幾乎倒閉，一改達利歐的自負和躁進，奠下成功基礎。 【開放心胸】 人們應該謙遜感和內省，能夠以開放心態思考尖銳的批評，並利用批評來不斷改進。承認自己有盲點，有些人比你看得準，你可以藉此學習。 【極度真實、極度透明】 了解事實是成功的關鍵，對錯誤保持透明，放寬心態，追求真相，才能有進步可能。 【可信度加權】 決策過程中，對有連續成功經驗、可信度高的好手給予更大的投票權重。選擇只問能力、不問位階。 【像操作機器一樣管理公司】 優秀的管理者就像工程師，不斷將產出結果與目標相對照，並將工作表現量化評估。 【創意擇優】 引導員工提出觀點，根據個人特徵（將特質與實績建立有如棒球卡般的資料表），分析和權衡其意見良窳，據以決策 本書上市已成為華爾街、百大企業管理者、金融業者、新創公司、想要進化的讀者人手一本的案頭書。正如比爾•蓋茲所盛讚：「瑞．達利歐曾給我非常寶貴的指導和忠告，你在《原則》一書中都能找到。」達利歐從失敗中學會了做人、做事的原則，而你不必失敗，就可以運用這些原則，實現自己的目標。 ─本書特色─ 1.華爾街投資大神畢生精鍊、所有想成功的人和企業都在等的《原則》！ 橋水基金創辦人達利歐將生活、管理、商業和投資系統化為一系列「原則」。以「極度真實」「極度透明」為基石，發展出「創意擇優」以及「基於可信度加權」的決策機制。無論企業或個人，都能從原則獲得啟發，運用原則來達成自身目標。 2.一堂淬煉40年、1,500億美元的課終於問世！教你最火紅、角度最全面的工作及人生原則 全球最大避險基金橋水，管理逾1,500億美元資產，原版《原則》公布在橋水官網，為助其屹立不搖的員工手冊，無數企業、管理者、職場人士競相捧讀，共計下載了超過300萬次，因而出版成書。全書配合達利歐多年經歷和感悟，任何讀者都能用以思考、實踐，進而改變。 3.各界盛讚：「企業進化+個人自我進化之書」！ 全世界重量級領袖盛讚，比爾‧蓋茲、Netflix創辦人里德•哈斯汀、海爾集團總執行長張瑞敏、摩根大通執行長傑米‧戴蒙、彭博社創辦人麥可‧彭博、潛能開發大師安東尼‧羅賓……強推，想不斷自我進化者必讀。 4.年度最強商管書！甫上市空降中、美各大暢銷榜首！ 2017美國亞馬遜書店商管冠軍、《紐約時報》非文學類榜首、中國亞馬遜書店商管榜首……堪稱年度最獨特、最暢銷、影響力最大的商管巨作。 5.與大師對話，精鍊你自己的生活與工作原則 每位讀者都能不僅能用心捧讀、親身體會，彷彿與大師臨場討論，總結出專屬個人的原則，讓本書變成你個人、你的公司、你所屬團體的進化之書。 ─名人推薦─ 【企業界】 比爾‧蓋茲（微軟創辦人）、孫基康（台灣微軟總經理）、何飛鵬（城邦集團首席執行長）、里德·哈斯汀（網飛創辦人）、蔡明介（聯發科技董事長暨執行長） 【財經界】 傑米‧戴蒙（摩根大通執行長）、梁國源（元大寶華綜合經濟研究院董事長）、許慶雲（安聯投信董事長）、財報狗（台灣最大的基本面資訊平台與社群）、雷浩斯（價值投資者／財經作家） 【媒體傳播界】 麥可‧彭博（彭博新聞社創辦人、紐約市前市長）、雅莉安娜‧赫芬頓（《赫芬頓郵報》創辦人）、郭奕伶（《商業周刊》總編輯）、安德魯‧羅斯‧索爾金（《紐約時報》專欄作家）、王伯達（財經自媒體《王伯達觀點》） 【學術界】 朱文儀（台大工商管理學系暨商學研究所教授）、邱奕嘉（政大EMBA執行長）、邱顯比（台大財金系暨研究所教授）、溫肇東（東方廣告董事長／創河塾塾長／政治大學科技管理與智慧財產研究所兼任教授） 【心靈成長】 安東尼‧羅賓（激勵大師）、亞當‧格蘭特（心理學家、華頓商學院教授）、提摩西‧費里斯（暢銷書《一週工作四小時》作者） 「瑞．達利歐曾向我提供的非常寶貴的指導和忠告，你在《原則》一書中都能找到。」─比爾·蓋茲，微軟創辦人 「瑞．達利歐擁有傳奇性的市場嗅覺，但他之所以能領先群倫，是因為他總結並實踐了一套原則。每個有目標、有夢想的人都能從《原則》裡獲益。」─麥可·彭博，彭博新聞社創辦人、紐約市前市長 「這位富豪投資家創造了我見過最強烈的組織文化：珍視極度透明，而非暗地操弄：珍視創意擇優，而非一人一票、票票等值的民主模式。在這本眾人期待已久的書中，他描述了其所設計的橋水模式如何打造出有意義的工作、有意義的人際關係以及世界最成功的避險基金。」 ─亞當‧格蘭特（心理學家、華頓商學院教授） 「我在閱讀的過程之中欲罷不能，在每篇重點上畫線，寫下筆記，恨不得吸收他所有的智慧。本書充滿了雷．達利歐對真正進化的渴望，他指的不單單是單一個體的進步，而是延續到人類整體的知識傳承，這種傳承能超越生命的限制，逐步改善所有人的生活。」─雷浩斯，價值投資者、財經作家 「我相信透過達利歐的《原則》，任何人都能夠更好地彌補自己的缺陷，發現自己更多的可能性，並發揮自己最大的潛力。」─財報狗，台灣最大的基本面資訊平台與社群 「投資是一個人的處事態度、基本學養以及決策模式顯露出來的一種行為，所以那些長期成功的投資人絕對有值得我們學習之處。而很多的投資原理，你可能自己看書就會懂，但有些經驗、或是生命的歷程，是只有從那些真正走過的人身上才能學得到的。」─王伯達，財經自媒體《王伯達觀點》 「我也特別同意『我們在組織裡就是做有意義的工作，發展有意義的人際關係』、『當你了解一個人，你就會知道從他那裡可以得到什麼』。其實很多他提供的原則都很淺顯易懂，但工作和組織的運行有時『知易行難』；或許是他能堅守、實踐這些原則，特別成功。」─溫肇東，東方廣告董事長、創河塾塾長、 政大科技管理與智慧財產研究所兼任教授 「與其說本書提供了具體的生活與職涯方針，倒不如說它給了我們一把開啟英雄旅程的鑰匙。在這段旅程中，我們將遭遇試煉與挑戰，我們也可望學會更細膩的觀察、更睿智的判斷，以及更果敢的心智。當這段旅程結束的時候，我們終有可能成為自己人生中的英雄。」─朱文儀，台大工商管理學系暨商學研究所教授） 「或許，忘我去己，才能突破自我。正如同達利歐認為他一生成功的關鍵，在於知道如何處理自己不知道的事，及如何在人生謎團中擺脫自己思想的主觀性，從而找到客觀的答案，讓人生更圓滿。謹以此書與所有有志建立『自己原則』的讀者分享。」─許慶雲，安聯投信董事長

原則：生活和工作

应对变化中的世界秩序

原则

Ray Dalio, the legendary investor and international bestselling author of Principles - whose books have sold more than five million copies worldwide - shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to antic­ipate 2008’s events and navigate them well while others struggled badly. As he explained in his international best­seller Principles, Ray Dalio believes that almost everything happens over and over again through time, so that by studying patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind events and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this three-part research series, he does just that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes of reducing the chances of big debt crises hap­pening and helping them be better managed in the future. The template comes in three parts: 1. The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template) 2. Three Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930s Great Depression and the 1920s infla­tionary depression of Germany’s Weimar Republic) 3. Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years) Whether you’re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested in debt, this unconventional perspective from one of the few people who navigated the crisis successfully, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

Ray Dalio

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