Robert J. Shiller

"Economists have long based their forecasts on financial aggregates such as price-earnings ratios, asset prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, and used them to produce statistically informed speculations about the future--with limited success. Robert Shiller employs such aggregates in his own forecasts, but has famously complemented them with observations about the influence of mass psychology on certain events. This approach has come to be known as behavioral economics. How can economists effectively capture the effects of psychology and its influence on economic events and change? Shiller attempts to help us better understand how psychology affects events by explaining how popular economic stories arise, how they grow viral, and ultimately how they drive economic developments. After defining narrative economics in the book's preface with allusions to the advent of both the Great Depression and to World War II, Shiller presents an example of a recent economic narrative gone viral in the story of Bitcoin. Next, he explains how narrative economics works with reference to how other disciplines incorporate narrative into their analyses and also to how epidemiology explains how disease goes viral. He then presents accounts of recurring economic narratives, including the gold standard, real estate booms, war and depression, and stock market booms and crashes. He ends his book with a blueprint for future research by economists on narrative economics"--

How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

Narrative Economics

An expert on market volatility offers a timely updated edition of his best-selling study that shows that the value of the stock market may be significantly inflated and urges cautious optimism, predicting that the market may show poorer performance in the future. Reprint. 15,000 first printing.

Irrational Exuberance

George A. Akerlof

From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide.

How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism

Animal Spirits

Akerlof and Shiller argue that markets harm as well as help us. As long as there is profit to be made, sellers will systematically exploit our psychological weaknesses and our ignorance through manipulation and deception. Based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away, they show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month's bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. In doing so they explain a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation.

The Economics of Manipulation and Deception

Phishing for Phools

Argues that finance should be defined not merely as the manipulation of money or the management of risk but as the stewardship of society's assets, and that new ways to rechannel financial creativity to benefit society as a whole are needed.

Finance and the Good Society

The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response--a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy. Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990s and in housing between 2000 and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects. This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out.

How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It

The Subprime Solution

Examines the impact of a rapidly evolving global economy on the twenty-first century financial world and presents six fundamental principles for using information technology and advanced financial theory to hedge risk.

Risk in the 21st Century

The New Financial Order

Revised and Expanded Third Edition

The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits--the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time--unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.

Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statisticalevidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standardefficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popularopinion or psychology can play in price volatility.Why does the stock market crash from time totime? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly makesurprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on thesequestions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretivematerial for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature,responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Includes is work authoredjointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel.MarketVolatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements forspeculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the realestate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis ofspeculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general.In studies of the October 1987 stock marketcrash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimedat collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in thosemodels. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data andbelieves that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearingno relation to fundamental shocks.Robert J. Shiller is Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics atthe Cowles Foundation, Yale University.

Market Volatility

Such new markets could dwarf our stock markets in their activity and significance.

Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks

Macro Markets

Wie Geschichten die Wirtschaft beeinflussen - ein revolutionärer Erklärungsansatz

Narrative Wirtschaft

Neşenur Domaniç

Levent Konyar

İnsan psikolojisi ekonomiyi nasıl yönlendirir ve küresel kapitalizm için niçin önemlidir

Hayvansal güdüler

Who's Minding the Store

The Report of the Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Market Speculation and Corporate Governance

manipülasyon ve hile ekonomisi

Sazan avı

A best-selling economist reveals the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and puts forward bold measures to resolve it by restructuring the institutional foundations of the financial system in a thoughtful study by the author of Irrational Exuberance. First serial, The Atlantic.

How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and what to Do about it

روبرت  ج. شيللر

يقدم روبرت ج. شيللر في هذا الكتاب الهام والعاجل وهو خبير موقر في قابلية التطاير التي يتمتع بها السوق شرحا غير تقليدي لقمم سوق أسهم الولايات المتحدة الحديثة ، ويبين أن تعبير الوفرة اللاعقلانية وصف جيد للحالة السائدة وراء السوق كما يحذر بأن الأداء الأسوء قد يكون في المستقبل القريب وهو يحاول أن يخبرنا كيف يمكننا أن نستجيب لذلك الوضع كمجتمع وبشكل إفرادي

الوفرة اللاعقلانية

The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response--a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy. Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990s and in housing between 2000 and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects. This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out. In a new preface to this powerful book, Shiller discusses the development of the crisis in relation to the ideas presented in The Subprime Solution.

An expert on market volatility shows that the value of the stock market may be significantly inflated and urges cautious optimism, predicting that the market may show poorer performance in the future.

Robert J. Shiller

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