Robin M. Hogarth

Emre Soyer

A transformative look at experience and the many ways it misleads, deceives and curtails us. Society venerates experience. Our personal experience is a key component of who we are. We judge others by theirs and are judged by ours. From doctors to teachers to presidents to chefs, in our society, the more experience the better. But while we value and trust experience above all else, we overlook its inherent downfalls. In The Myth of Experience, Hogarth and Soyer explore why a reliance on experience can ultimately hinder individual and societal decision-making. Drawing on concepts of behavioral science and economics, they highlight how experience can misrepresent the past, limit creativity, restrict freedom and reduce happiness. In doing so, they transform the conventional wisdom behind experience and provide a guide on how to improve our use of it. When organizations and decision-makers develop a healthy criticism towards experience, effective strategies develop and growth can occur. Told in an engaging narrative with cases from history and everyday life, alongside their own cutting-edge discoveries in behavioral science, Hogarth and Soyer illustrate the flaws of experience as a decision-making tool and the instances where our most trusted ally could really be our enemy, in the workplace and beyond.

Why We Learn the Wrong Lessons, and Ways to Correct Them

The Myth of Experience

Every day we make intuitive decisions—from the mundane choice of what clothes to wear to more important issues such as which new car "feels right" or which person would be "good" for a particular job. To varying degrees, logic plays a role in these decisions, but at a certain point all of us rely on intuition, our sixth sense. Is this the right way to decide? Should we trust our gut feelings? When intuition conflicts with logic, what should we do? In Educating Intuition, Robin M. Hogarth lays bare this mysterious process so fundamental to daily life by offering the first comprehensive overview of what the science of psychology can tell us about intuition—where it comes from, how it works, whether we can trust it. From this literature and his own research, Hogarth finds that intuition is a normal and important component of thought that has its roots in processes of tacit learning. Environment, attention, experience, expertise, and the success of the scientific method all form part of Hogarth's perspective on intuition, leading him to the surprising—but natural—conclusion that we can educate our sixth sense. To this end he offers concrete suggestions and exercises to help readers develop their intuitive skills and habits for learning the "right" lessons from experience. Artfully and accessibly combining cognitive science, the latest research in psychology, and Hogarth's own observations, Educating Intuition eschews the vague approach to the topic that has become commonplace and provides instead a wholly engaging and practical guide to enhancing our intuitive skills.

Educating Intuition

Question Framing and Response Consistency

Hillel J. Einhorn

Robin Hogarth

How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn

Insights in Decision Making

Anil Gaba

Spyros G. Makridakis

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

Making Luck Work for You

Dance With Chance

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - Dance With Chance argues that we all fall foul of the "The Illusion of Control", meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers. A must-have book for all

Robin M. Hogarth

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