David Colander

Roland Kupers

"A much-needed, fresh view of policy. It is based neither on free market ideology nor on heavy government control, but on seeing the economy as an always evolving complex system that can be guided toward desirable outcomes. An important book that will change how policies are made."--W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute ""Complexity and the Art of Public Policy" helps readers understand how politics and business are part of a large sophisticated social system and how the critical issues and transitions of this system can be driven successfully."--Dick Benschop, president-director of Shell Netherlands and former deputy minister of foreign affairs for the Netherlands "We live in an increasingly interconnected world that generates hugely wicked problems--managing this complexity will be the hallmark of good governments. In this book, Colander and Kupers show how complexity is relevant to policymaking and present a rich menu of ideas for governments wanting to function better in today's intricate operating environment. It deserves to be read by all policymakers."--Peter Ho, Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore "Easily one of the best policy and economics books I've read in a long time. It should be widely read and studied by policymakers, students of public policy, and the informed public alike."--David W. Orr, Oberlin College and the Cleveland Foundation "A blend of common sense, historical knowledge, and the latest developments in complexity theory, this book shows what's wrong with the current policy narrative, and offers an exciting alternative."--Martin Reeves, director of the BCG Strategy Institute "This book describes how economics got us stuck into two competing policy narratives, and how complexity provides a new way forward. Policymakers everywhere should read it."--Andrew Steer, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute "This accessible and well-researched book argues that the world in which our leaders govern has become increasingly complex and interconnected, with the potential for unexpected, harmful events, such as market crashes and political uprisings. Complexity, though, should not be avoided. Properly harnessed, the drivers of complexity can produce constant innovation while maintaining system-level robustness. Achieving those ends requires an understanding of the bottom-up thinking so engagingly presented in this book."--Scott Page, University of Michigan

Solving Society's Problems from the Bottom Up

Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

Angela Wilkinson

In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.

learning from the shell experience

The essence of scenarios

"In this book, Roland Kupers argues that the climate crisis is well suited to the bottom-up, rapid, and revolutionary change complexity science theorizes; he succinctly makes the case that complexity science promises policy solutions to address climate change"--

What the Science of Complexity Reveals about Saving Our Planet

A Climate Policy Revolution

The ever tighter coupling of our food, water and energy systems, in the context of a changing climate is leading to increasing turbulence in the world. As a consequence, it becomes ever more crucial to develop cities, regions, and economies with resilience in mind. Because of their global reach, substantial resources, and information-driven leadership structures, multinational corporations can play a major, constructive role in improving our understanding and design of resilient systems. This volume is the product of the Resilience Action Initiative, a collaboration among Dow, DuPont, IBM, McKinsey & Co., Shell, Siemens, Swiss Re, Unilever, and Yara designed to explore possible corporate contributions to global resilience, especially at the nexus of water, food and energy. Aggressively forward-thinking, and consistent with an enlightened self-interest, the ideas considered here represent a corporate perspective on the broad collaborations required for a more resilient world. - Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.

R. J. Jones

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