Poland's Mountain of Debt Will it Dwindle?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze Polish prospects to work out during the 1980s a feasible long-term strategy to gain control of the debt situation. The paper attempts to capture the policy options open to Poland, the Soviet Union and the West in the form of a series of scenarios, and then projects hard currency balance of payments and output for each scenario. A comparison of the projections provides a means by which the impact of alternative policies on Polish creditworthiness and output levels can be judged.