Ian Bremmer

New York Times bestseller "A cogent analysis of the concurrent Trump/Brexit phenomena and a dire warning about what lies ahead...a lucid, provocative book." --Kirkus Reviews Those who championed globalization once promised a world of winners, one in which free trade would lift all the world's boats, and extremes of left and right would give way to universally embraced liberal values. The past few years have shattered this fantasy, as those who've paid the price for globalism's gains have turned to populist and nationalist politicians to express fury at the political, media, and corporate elites they blame for their losses. The United States elected an anti-immigration, protectionist president who promised to "put America first" and turned a cold eye on alliances and treaties. Across Europe, anti-establishment political parties made gains not seen in decades. The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. And as Ian Bremmer shows in this eye-opening book, populism is still spreading. Globalism creates plenty of both winners and losers, and those who've missed out want to set things right. They've seen their futures made obsolete. They hear new voices and see new faces all about them. They feel their cultures shift. They don't trust what they read. They've begun to understand the world as a battle for the future that pits "us" vs. "them." Bremmer points to the next wave of global populism, one that hits emerging nations before they have fully emerged. As in Europe and America, citizens want security and prosperity, and they're becoming increasingly frustrated with governments that aren't capable of providing them. To protect themselves, many government will build walls, both digital and physical. For instance... * In Brazil and other fast-developing countries, civilians riot when higher expectations for better government aren't being met--the downside of their own success in lifting millions from poverty. * In Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and other emerging states, frustration with government is on the rise and political battle lines are being drawn. * In China, where awareness of inequality is on the rise, the state is building a system to use the data that citizens generate to contain future demand for change * In India, the tools now used to provide essential services for people who've never had them can one day be used to tighten the ruling party's grip on power. When human beings feel threatened, we identify the danger and look for allies. We use the enemy, real or imagined, to rally friends to our side. This book is about the ways in which people will define these threats as fights for survival. It's about the walls governments will build to protect insiders from outsiders and the state from its people. And it's about what we can do about it.

The Failure of Globalism

Us vs. Them

IAN BREMMER WAS NAMED LINKEDIN'S #1 TOP INFLUENCER in 2017 -------------- 'Required reading to help repair a world in pieces and build a world at peace' - António Guterres, United Nations Secretary General -------------- 'Ian Bremmer is provocative, controversial, and always intelligent about the state of the world, which he knows so well' - Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund -------------- From Brexit, to Donald Trump, to extremist parties in Europe and the developing world, populism has dominated recent headlines. But what explains the rise of leaders who stoke nationalist anger in their countries, from Le Pen to Erdogan? How long will the populist wave last? Who will be the winners and losers in this climate, and how can we defend the values of democracy, free trade and international cooperation? No one is better suited to explore these questions than Ian Bremmer, the CEO of the Eurasia Group and acclaimed Time magazine columnist. Analysing the social, economic and technological forces fuelling this new wave of populism, Bremmer explains why we're witnessing a rejection of the democratic, global, cosmopolitan trends of the late 20th century. Us vs. Them is a definitive guide to navigating the shifting political landscape, for businesses looking to weather and survive the populist storm.

Renowned political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from global challenges of the past 100 years—including the pandemic—to show how we can respond to three great crises unfolding over the next decade. In this revelatory, unnerving, and ultimately hopeful book, Bremmer details how domestic and international conflicts leave us unprepared for a trio of looming crises—global health emergencies, transformative climate change, and the AI revolution. Today, Americans cannot reach consensus on any significant political issue, and US and Chinese leaders behave as if they’re locked in a new Cold War. We are squandering opportunities to meet the challenges that will soon confront us all. In coming years, humanity will face viruses deadlier and more infectious than Covid. Intensifying climate change will put tens of millions of refugees in flight and require us to reimagine how we live our daily lives. Most dangerous of all, new technologies will reshape the geopolitical order, disrupting our livelihoods and destabilizing our societies faster than we can grasp and address their implications. The good news? Some farsighted political leaders, business decision-makers, and individual citizens are already collaborating to tackle all these crises. The question that should keep us awake is whether they will work well and quickly enough to limit the fallout—and, most importantly, whether we can use these crises to innovate our way toward a better world. Drawing on strategies both time-honored and cutting-edge, from the Marshall Plan to the Green New Deal, The Power of Crisis provides a roadmap for surviving—even thriving in—the 21st century. Bremmer shows governments, corporations, and every concerned citizen how we can use these coming crises to create the worldwide prosperity and opportunity that 20th-century globalism promised but failed to deliver.

How Three Threats – and Our Response – Will Change the World

The Power of Crisis

Posing arguments about growing G-20 restrictions, a portrait of an imminent "G-Zero" world without a single country driving international agendas predicts intensified conflicts.

Winners and Losers in a G-zero World

Every Nation for Itself

"America will remain the world's only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play? Ian Bremmer argues that Washington's directionless foreign policy has become prohibitively expensive and increasingly dangerous. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have stumbled from crisis to crisis in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine without a clear strategy. Ordinary Americans too often base their foreign policy choices on allegiance or opposition to the party in power. We can no longer afford this complacency, especially now that both parties are deeply divided about America's role in the world." --

three choices for America's role in the world

Superpower

the power of political knowledge for strategic investing

The fat tail

This work details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies. This trend, Bremmer argues, threatens America's competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere.

who wins the war between states and corporations?

The end of the free market

An international expert presents an analysis of why and how nations make business decisions while demonstrating how the U.S. can best act in its own interests, revealing how the examples of Saddam Hussein and Fidel Castro can inform us about North Korea's Kim Jong-Il, the role America should take in strengthening China's economy, and the importance of acting in Saudi Arabia before it is broken apart. Reprint. 40,000 first printing.

A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

The J Curve

الذيل السميك - أهمية المعرفة السياسية في الاستثمار الاستراتيجي

Well-known political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from the greatest crises of the last century—including the pandemic—to show how best to handle the four great crises we will face over the next decade. Two years after the worst global health crisis in a century, the world is still struggling to regain its footing. And yet the pandemic has also served as both a wake-up call and roadmap for the limited cooperation needed to navigate the challenges ahead. In this revelatory book, Bremmer lays out a series of coming crises—US-China confrontation, future health emergencies, climate change, and the AI revolution. To survive and solve these complex problems, we must learn the lessons the pandemic can teach us, work intelligently together on issues that threaten every nation, and share responsibility for the dangers that loom over all of us. Drawing on the lessons of the past century, Bremmer argues effectively that we need a crisis big enough to frighten us into building a new international system that is built for today’s—and tomorrow’s—purpose. Bremmer tell us what governments, corporations, and individuals can do to ensure that all the destruction of recent years will have been “creative destruction” and that COVID can show us how to set a new course toward a more peaceful and prosperous future. It will take vision, stamina, and a leap of faith, but if we take practical action now, we can build a better world.

How to Confront the Three Greatest Dangers of Our Time

The Crises We Need

A number of authoritarian governments, drawn to the economic power of capitalism but wary of uncontrolled free markets, have invented something new: state capitalism. In this system, governments use markets to create wealth that can be directed as political officials see fit. As an expert on the intersection between economics and politics, Ian Bremmer is uniquely qualified to illustrate the rise of state capitalism and its long-term threat to the global economy. The main characters in this story are the men who rule China, Russia, and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, but their successes are attracting imitators across much of the developing world. This guide to the next big trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone else who wants to understand major emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.

Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?

The End of the Free Market

Preston Keat

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Preface)

The Fat Tail

New York Times Bestseller Renowned political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from global challenges of the past 100 years—including the pandemic—to show how we can respond to three great crises unfolding over the next decade. In this revelatory, unnerving, and ultimately hopeful book, Bremmer details how domestic and international conflicts leave us unprepared for a trio of looming crises—global health emergencies, transformative climate change, and the AI revolution. Today, Americans cannot reach consensus on any significant political issue, and US and Chinese leaders behave as if they’re locked in a new Cold War. We are squandering opportunities to meet the challenges that will soon confront us all. In coming years, humanity will face viruses deadlier and more infectious than Covid. Intensifying climate change will put tens of millions of refugees in flight and require us to reimagine how we live our daily lives. Most dangerous of all, new technologies will reshape the geopolitical order, disrupting our livelihoods and destabilizing our societies faster than we can grasp and address their implications. The good news? Some farsighted political leaders, business decision-makers, and individual citizens are already collaborating to tackle all these crises. The question that should keep us awake is whether they will work well and quickly enough to limit the fallout—and, most importantly, whether we can use these crises to innovate our way toward a better world. Drawing on strategies both time-honored and cutting-edge, from the Marshall Plan to the Green New Deal, The Power of Crisis provides a roadmap for surviving—even thriving in—the 21st century. Bremmer shows governments, corporations, and every concerned citizen how we can use these coming crises to create the worldwide prosperity and opportunity that 20th-century globalism promised but failed to deliver.

Ray Taras

Since its publication in 1993, Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor-States edited by Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras has established itself internationally as the genuinely comprehensive, systematic and rigorous analysis of the nation- and state-building processes of the fifteen states that grew out of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations was first published in 1997 and succeeds and replaces the editors' earlier book with a fresh collection of specially commissioned studies from the world's foremost specialists. Far from eradicating tensions among the former Soviet peoples, the disintegration of empire saw national minorities rediscovering long-suppressed identities. The contributors to New States, New Politics bring together historical and ethnic backgrounds with penetrating political analysis to offer an intriguing record of the different roads to self-assertion and independence being pursued by these young nations.

Building the Post-Soviet Nations

New States, New Politics

G-Zero — \JEE-ZEER-oh\ —n A world order in which no single country or durable alliance of countries can meet the challenges of global leadership. What happens when the G20 doesn’t work and the G7 is history. If the worst threatened—a rogue nuclear state, a major health crisis, the collapse of the global financial system—where would the world look for leadership? For the first time in seven decades, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on the challenges of global leadership. A generation ago, the United States, Europe, and Japan were the world’s powerhouses, the free-market democra­cies that propelled the global economy forward. But today, they struggle just to find their footing. Acclaimed geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer argues that this leadership vacuum is here to stay, as power is regionalized instead of globalized. Now that so many challenges transcend borders—from the stability of the global economy and climate change to cyber-attacks and terrorism—the need for international cooperation has never been greater.

What Happens When No One Leads the World

Se rappresentiamo con un grafico la stabilità di un paese in funzione della sua apertura economica e politica verso il resto del mondo, otteniamo una curva a forma di J: all'aumento dell'apertura il paese diventa inizialmente più instabile. Bremmer distilla in modo brillante i decenni di storia appena trascorsi per analizzare paesi chiave posti in punti diversi della curva J: Iran, Iraq, Turchia, Russia, India, Cina, Corea del Nord, Arabia Saudita, Sudafrica, Israele, Cuba, per concludere che l'isolamento politico e le sanzioni economiche spesso provocano l'effetto opposto a quello che si intende perseguire e che la globalizzazione commerciale è il miglior modo per allentare la presa che i regimi autoritari hanno sulle rispettive società.

La curva J

Paul Krugman

David Rosenberg

Lawrence Summers

As stock markets gyrate, Europe lurches from crisis to crisis, and recovery in the United States slows, the future of the North American economy is more uncertain than ever. Can individual entrepreneurship, corporate innovation, and governments create a new era of sustained economic growth? Or, will the ongoing financial crisis, political dysfunction in the United States, and the rise of emerging nations erode living standards in North America for the long term? In this edition of the Munk Debates -- Canada's premier international debate series -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and former Chief Economist at the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch David Rosenberg square off against former director of President Obama’s National Economic Council Lawrence Summers and bestselling author Ian Bremmer to tackle the resolution: Be it resolved North America faces a Japan-style era of high unemployment and slow growth. This riveting debate features four of the world's most renowned economists discussing the single most important issue facing all North Americans in a lively, engaging forum. The economy is a concern that demands our immediate attention and this enlightening and hugely important debate is a must-read for all of us.

The Munk Debate on the Economy

North America’s Lost Decade?

Three Choices for America's Role in the World

America will remain the world’s only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play? Ian Bremmer argues that Washington’s directionless foreign policy has become prohibitively expensive and increasingly dangerous. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have stumbled from crisis to crisis in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine without a clear strategy. Ordinary Americans too often base their foreign policy choices on allegiance or opposition to the party in power. We can no longer afford this complacency, especially now that both parties are deeply divided about America’s role in the world. The next presidential election could easily pit an interventionist Democrat against an isolationist Republican—or the exact opposite. As 2016 rapidly approaches, Bremmer urges every American to think more deeply about what sort of country America should be and how it should use its superpower status. He explores three options: Independent America asserts that it’s time for America to declare independence from the responsibility to solve other people’s problems. Instead, Americans should lead by example—in part, by investing in the country’s vast untapped potential. Moneyball America acknowledges that Washington can’t meet every international challenge. With a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations, we must look beyond empty arguments over exceptionalism and American values. The priorities must be to focus on opportunities and to defend U.S. interests where they’re threatened. Indispensable America argues that only America can defend the values on which global stability increasingly depends. In today’s interdependent, hyperconnected world, a turn inward would undermine America’s own security and prosperity. We will never live in a stable world while others are denied their most basic freedoms—from China to Russia to the Middle East and beyond. There are sound arguments for and against each of these choices, but we must choose. Washington can no longer improvise a foreign policy without a lasting commitment to a coherent strategy. As Bremmer notes, “When I began writing this book, I didn’t know which of these three choices I would favor. It’s easy to be swayed by pundits and politicians with a story to sell or an ax to grind. My attempt to make the most honest and forceful case I could make for each of these three arguments helped me understand what I believe and why I believe it. I hope it will do the same for you. I don’t ask you to agree with me. I ask only that you choose.”

Ian Bremmer

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