Thomas Fingar

intelligence analysis and national security

Reducing uncertainty

Jean C. Oi

China's future is neither inevitable nor immutable: it will be shaped by the choices made to address the multiple interlinked challenges that it faces.

Choices that Will Shape China's Future

Fateful Decisions

Michael J. Sulick

Robert M. Clark

Douglas L. Wheeler

James B. Bruce

John F. Sullivan

Stewart A. Baker

Philip Mudd

Rose Mary Sheldon

Michael Fredholm

Edward F. Mickolus

Elbridge Colby

Stefania Paladini

Michael S. Goodman

Jan Goldman

Gary E. Weir

Edward Mozley Roche

Mark M. Lowenthal

David L. Charney

Peter C. Oleson

Joshua M. Bart

Eleni C. Braat

Ronald L. Burgess, Jr.

Stephen H. Campbell

Jonathan D. Clemente

José Medina González Dávila

Lawrence D. Dietz

Robert E. Dupré

Huw Dylan

Rowena Rege Fischer

Jennifer H. Fisher

Carl W. Ford, Jr.

Arthur E. Gerringer

Tobias T. Gibson

Edward J. Glantz

Karl O. Haigler

Philippe Hayez

Jan P. Herring

G. Philip Hughes

John Alan Irvin

Stéphane J. Lefebvre

Jeremy Jez Littlewood

N. John MacGaffin, 3rd

Stephen Patrick Marrin

Hedwige Regnault de Maulmin

Robert A. McDonald

John J. McGonagle, Jr.

Robert A. Mirabello

William M. Nolte

Robert A. Norton

Mirielle M. Petitjean

Samuel Eugene Poteat

Douglas R. Price

Robert W. Pringle

Frederick W. Rustmann, Jr.

Ernesto J. Sanchez

John R. Sano

Florian Schaurer

Robert Anthony Smith

Thomas R. Spencer, Jr.

William C. Spracher

James E. Steiner

Jan Störger

Mark E. Stout

Adam D. M. Svendsen

Michelle K. Van Cleave

Carl Anthony Wege

Jon A. Wiant

The goal of the Guide to the Study of Intelligence is to help instructors teach about the field of intelligence. This includes... undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. The assumption is that none of the... instructors is an expert in the topic of intelligence. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities."In each of the articles the intent is to identify the important learning points for students and the materials that an instructor can use to teach. This includes books, articles, and websites..."

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence

In From Mandate to Blueprint, Thomas Fingar offers a guide for new federal government appointees faced with the complex task of rebuilding institutions and transitioning to a new administration. Synthesizing his own experience implementing the most comprehensive reforms to the national security establishment since 1947, Fingar provides crucial guidance to newly appointed officials. When Fingar was appointed the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis in 2005, he discovered the challenges of establishing a new federal agency and implementing sweeping reforms of intelligence procedure and performance. The mandate required prompt action but provided no guidance on how to achieve required and desirable changes. Fingar describes how he defined and prioritized the tasks involved in building and staffing a new organization, integrating and improving the work of sixteen agencies, and contending with pressure from powerful players. For appointees without the luxury of taking command of fully staffed and well-functioning federal agencies, From Mandate to Blueprint is an informed and practical guide for the challenges ahead.

Lessons from Intelligence Reform

From Mandate to Blueprint

Uneasy Partnerships presents the analysis and insights of practitioners and scholars who have shaped and examined China's interactions with key Northeast Asian partners. Using the same empirical approach employed in the companion volume, The New Great Game (Stanford, 2016), this new text analyzes the perceptions, priorities, and policies of China and its partners to explain why dyadic relationships evolved as they have during China's "rise." Synthesizing insights from an array of research, Uneasy Partnerships traces how the relationships that formed between China and its partner states—Japan, the Koreas, and Russia—resulted from the interplay of competing and compatible objectives, as well as from the influence of third-country ties. These findings are used to identify patterns and trends and to develop a framework that can be used to illuminate and explain Beijing's engagement with the rest of the world.

China’s Engagement with Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform

Uneasy Partnerships

China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions, leading experts from a wide range of disciplines eschew broad predictions of success or failure in favor of close analyses of today's most critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign policy challenges. They expertly outline the options and opportunity costs entailed, providing a cutting-edge analytic framework for understanding the decisions that will determine China's trajectory. Xi Jinping has articulated ambitious goals, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and massive urbanization projects, but few priorities or policies to achieve them. These goals have thrown into relief the crises facing China as the economy slows and the population ages while the demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits are increasing. Global ambitions and a more assertive military also compete for funding and policy priority. These challenges are compounded by the size of China's population, outdated institutions, and the reluctance of powerful elites to make reforms that might threaten their positions, prerogatives, and Communist Party legitimacy. In this volume, individual chapters provide in-depth analyses of key policies relating to these challenges. Contributors illuminate what is at stake, possible choices, and subsequent outcomes. This volume equips readers with everything they need to understand these complex developments in context.

Choices That Will Shape China's Future

Thomas Fingar

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