Thinking in Bets
Thought provoking

Thinking in Bets Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke2019
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Sign up to use


Photo of Morgan Holland
Morgan Holland@morgz
5 stars
Jan 24, 2023
Photo of Danté
4 stars
Aug 31, 2022
Photo of Wojciech Waśniewski
Wojciech Waśniewski@Wojciech
3 stars
Aug 18, 2022
Photo of Ugis
4 stars
Jul 31, 2022
Photo of Omar Fernandez
Omar Fernandez@omareduardo
4 stars
Dec 10, 2021
Photo of Luke Kanies
Luke Kanies@lak
5 stars
Dec 4, 2021
Photo of Ivaylo Durmonski
Ivaylo Durmonski@durmonski
5 stars
Oct 29, 2021
Photo of Fred Rivett
Fred Rivett@fredrivett
3 stars
Mar 22, 2023
Thought provoking
Photo of Zane Shannon
Zane Shannon@zcs
4.5 stars
Sep 3, 2022
Photo of Ethan Ding
Ethan Ding@ethanding
3 stars
Aug 1, 2022
Photo of Felix Schröder
Felix Schröder@fesch
3.5 stars
Feb 19, 2022
Photo of Jack Baty
Jack Baty@jackbaty
3 stars
Nov 12, 2021
Photo of Martin Heuer
Martin Heuer@maddin
3 stars
Sep 21, 2023
Photo of ian alas
ian alas@ian
3 stars
Jul 13, 2023
Photo of WP
3 stars
Jul 9, 2023
Photo of manav
manav @manavmishra
4 stars
May 26, 2023
Photo of Yuval Shoshan
Yuval Shoshan@yuvals
3 stars
Apr 18, 2023
Photo of Todd Prauner
Todd Prauner@tuddball
5 stars
Mar 25, 2023
Photo of Erin Lee
Erin Lee@itserinleeslibrary
5 stars
Mar 25, 2023
Photo of Bouke van der Bijl
Bouke van der Bijl@bouk
2 stars
Mar 1, 2023
Photo of Nguyen Huu
Nguyen Huu@hucancode
5 stars
Feb 20, 2023
Photo of farah
3 stars
Jan 25, 2023
Photo of Daniel Luca
Daniel Luca@cleanunicorn
4 stars
Jan 20, 2023
Photo of Rohini Anandamurugan
Rohini Anandamurugan@rohini-anandamurugan
4 stars
Jan 20, 2023