Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Key points from this analysis include: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an enduring association which was originally brought together by the short-term border security interests of its first five members. Russia believes it plays a leading role in the SCO; in fact, however, the organization is and always has been driven by China, and Moscow's role is vital but secondary. The other member states, former Central Asian Soviet republics with no history of modern statehood or governance, are not equal partners-but their geostrategic location and, in some cases, natural resources make them potentially valuable allies for the United States and other major powers. The SCO is unlikely to enlarge further. Since its inception, the SCO has received several applications for membership. However, any enlargement of the organization could be fraught with difficulties, mainly because of conflicts of interest between China and Russia and the fear by member states that some new candidates are potential international liabilities and may create further conflict within the organization.